Talladega AMP Energy 500 Race Preview...Beyond the Numbers



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 Talladega Super Speedway; the 2.66 mile Tri-oval in Northern Alabama that since 1968 has been entertaining race fans. We love to watch the boys get down and dirt, bump and rub, race hard all the way from the Green Flag to the Checkers. And there is always the “Big One” to look for. The Speedway is located in the northern part of Alabama, just south of Interstate 20 and about 50 miles to the east of Birmingham. The AMP Energy 500 will take place on Halloween – Sunday October 31st and drivers are hoping for treats instead of treats as they circumnavigate the 'Dega track 188 times on their way to 500.08 miles. Who will be at the top of the Leader Board when the Checkers fly?


Tony Stewart lost a spot in the points after last week's race in Martinsville...and he wants it back. With four of his last five starts at 'Dega finding Tony outside of the top ten at the end of the race, he needs to set a goal of duplicating his win in the 2008 AMP Energy 500. Other than that win, Stewart has taken the Checkered flag in the top ten on 11 other occasions. Tony find the top ten by the end of the day in more than 50% of his Cup starts at Talladega and in 54% of his Superspeedway starts. Will Tony get tricks or treats this year in his goodie bag?



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 Jimmie Johnson comes to Alabama the Chase leader but with 41% of his starts at Talladega ending with top ten finishes Johnson is definitely not a shoe-in this weekend. One start for Johnson has resulted in a win and four more times he has posted top five finishes. In recent appearances at 'Dega Jimmie has only found the top ten by the end of the race two out of his last five starts. Johnson has also had two finishes in the 30's and one 13th place finish in the spring 2008 race in his last five starts here.

Five-time Talladega winner Dale Earnhardt, Jr. comes into this weekend with only two of his past five starts ending in a top ten finish. Dale's last top ten came in the Spring 2009 race in Alabama, his last two starts have given him 11th and 13th place finishes. He has flirted with the top ten in all but one of his last six Cup starts at this track. Earnhardt has never started from the pole position at this Superspeedway but coming off of a seventh place finish last week he should have quite a bit of confidence about this Halloween weekend.

Denny Hamlin currently resides in the second position for the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship just six points behind Jimmie Johnson. Denny is in the best position anyone has been in after six Chase races to take over the points lead. With no wins at 'Dega and three top tens in nine starts, Denny posts a 19.3 average finish here. Hamlin has fought hard to gain on the points leader, however so don't expect a less-than-desirable average at this track to stop Denny from coming out with guns blazing.



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 Kevin Harvick is working at the 62 point deficit that exists between himself and the Chase points leader. Kevin sits in third position in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship, won in the Spring Talladega race, and has eight top ten finishes in his 18 Cup starts at this track. With a 20.8 for an average finish in his last five Cup starts in Alabama Harvick needs to improve on all but the most recent of his appearances at 'Dega – his win in this year's Spring race - and go for the points this weekend. Maybe Kevin should dress as a race winner for Halloween this year...

Jamie McMurray won the AMP Energy 500 in 2009, finished in the runner-up spot in the 2010 Spring race; we have seen Jamie make things happen this year when he expects to do well. McMurray has 16 starts at the Talladega Superspeedway; six of those starts have given him top ten finishes at the end of his day. One-third of all of Jamie's starts at Superspeedways have resulted in top tens. After a pole start at the Auto Club Speedway, a win two weeks ago in Charlotte, a win in the AMP Energy 500 in 2009, and a second place finish at his last Cup start in Alabama McMurray is coming to town with some big plans for a Halloween party in Victory Lane.

Mark Martin brought home a second place finish in Martinsville last week; can he do it again in Alabama? Martin certainly has the edge on the rest of the field in regard to experience. Mark has 45 Cup starts at Talladega dating back to 1982. Over the course of these last 28 years Martin has posted just two wins but claims a top ten finish in more than half of his starts at this Superspeedway. One-third of Mark's 69 top ten finishes at Superspeedways have happened at Talladega.



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 Kurt Busch is sitting in the ninth position in the Chase points standings. This could be Kurt's best chance for a big points weekend in the remainder of this season. Although this Busch brother has never won at 'Dega, he posts a 12.8 average finish and has found his way to the top ten in 13 of his 19 starts here. This Alabama track is by far his best Superspeedway – 42% of Kurt's Superspeedway top ten finishes have come at this track. Coming off a string of finishes outside of the top ten, Kurt has his eye on a strong run on Sunday at Hallow-Dega.

Clint Bowyer is out f the Chase but his season is far from over. After a dismal week at Martinsville found him in the 4th turn wall less than a third of the way through the race, he finished 38th due to a rear gear failure after his team got him back o the track post-accident. Clint comes to Talladega with the desire to gain points on 11th place Greg Biffle who is 90 points in front of Clint. Bowyer can claim three top ten finishes at 'Dega in his nine Cup Series starts and finished in the seventh position here in the Spring. Clint is going to be racing for his first Cup win at in Alabama Sunday in the AMP Energy 500.

Gaining two places in the Chase after Martinsville, but still 246 points behind Chase leader Johnson, Jeff Burton comes to Alabama this weekend with 13 top ten finishes to his credit at this track. Finishing in the top ten in three of his last five starts at 'Dega helps Jeff with the confidence aspect and the mental side of this weekend's Halloween special. Jeff typically performs just barely better at the Fall race in Talladega than in the Spring. His Fall race average finish is 18.06 whereas he posts a 18.64 for his Spring race average finish.



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 My pick for the win in Sunday's AMP Energy 500 is Jamie McMurray with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Kevin Harvick rounding out the top three. Also in the top ten we should expect to see Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin, and Kurt Busch. Kyle Busch will be the cause of the “Big One” while racing against Jeff Gordon, taking Juan Pablo Montoya out of the race in the process. Watch for veteran driver Mark Martin to dominate early but fall off in the later stages of the race to the rear of the top ten.

The AMP Energy 500 practice on Friday will air at 2pm and 3:30pm on the SPEED Channel. Saturday brings us Live Practice, again on the SPEED Channel coming on-air at Noon. Raceday will be on the SPEED Channel from 10am until Noon. ESPN2 picks up coverage at Noon and will carry on until race coverage from Talladega starts on ESPN at 1pm. Don't miss this afternoon of Have-at-it-Boys racing on Halloween from the South.

Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com/

AAA 400 at the Dover International Speedway...By the numbers and Beyond

This week NASCAR heads to Dover International Speedway, a one-mile track located just west of Delaware Bay and north of Dover. The AAA 400 will run Sunday afternoon as the second race in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship. Drivers will navigate the oval at Dover 400 times before the checkers fly.


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After Clint Bowyer's impressive run last week at Louden that moved him from 12th to second in the Chase standings, his car failed post-race inspection. NASCAR officials determined that the rear end of the RCR chassis did not meet NASCAR-approved specifications. The team was penalized through a suspension for Crew Chief Shane Wilson for the next six races, and more importantly 150 points. This penalty takes Clint from second place back down to 12th, 185 points behind points leader Denny Hamlin.

Although Clint has not won at this track, he has finished in the top ten in three of the nine Cup races at Dover. Bowyer finished in seventh place at this track in the spring. With an average finish at Dover of 14.7 Clint will have to step up his game to finish near the front of the field and regain some of his lost points. As Clint said after his win last weekend, “...if we can continue to ride that momentum wave through this Chase, we can have a shot at it just like we did in 2007.”

Jeff Gordon comes to Dover in the fifth place in the Chase standings after a sixth place finish in New Hampshire helped him move up three spots in the standings. Without a win this season, Gordon is hungry for victory. Gordon has two wins at Dover, but the last was in 2001. Through 1995 and 1996 Jeff won three in a row at Dover. In the spring race this year Gordon posted an 11th place finish. With Jeff's 35 previous Cup races at Dover International Speedway lending their experience, this could be week he ends his losing streak.

After losing five spots in the Chase standings last week with a disappointing 25th place finish last week at Louden, Jimmie Johnson has to come to Dover to prove he is still the man to beat. Johnson has claimed five wins in his 17 Cup starts and 11 top ten finishes at Dover. Jimmie and his #48 Lowe's Team have the knowledge to tame this mile track, come out with a top ten finish this week, and move back up toward the top of the Chase leader board.


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 Not giving up the number one spot in the Chase standings easily, Denny Hamlin will likely come out as a man on a mission this weekend. With nine Cup starts at this track, he has claimed three top ten finishes but no wins. Hamlin has finished fourth twice at Dover, including in this year's spring race. Denny has been a solid performer at almost every track this year, his all-around racing ability will likely gain him another top ten this week, and keep him at least near the top of the Chase leader board.

Tony Stewart is another driver who lost five spots in the Chase standings after a bad finish last week. After running out of gas with the white flag in sight while leading the race, Stewart finished 24th in New Hampshire. Coming into Dover, Tony has to feel confident that his team can put together another strong run. Stewart has finished in the top ten in his last three appearances in Delaware for Cup racing, and in his 23 Cup starts at Dover International Speedway has posted five wins and 15 top ten finishes. Watch for Tony to try to move up the leader board a few spots with a solid run on Sunday.

Gaining momentum last week is Dale Earnhardt, Jr. after a fourth place finish last week. Out of the Chase the only pressure Dale feels is the pressure to win the race for his Hendricks #88 Team. In 21 Cup starts at this track Earnhardt has finished in the top ten seven times and went to Victory Lane once. Dale finished 30th in Delaware in the spring and has not seen a top ten finish here since the first Dover race in 2007. Earnhardt should be able to put together a good run this week and crack the top ten again.

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Greg Biffle slipped two spots in the Chase standings after finishing 17th last week. He has proven himself able to stay with the competition at this track in the past, however. With 10 top ten finishes, six top fives and two wins at Dover Greg could be a contender for the top spot this weekend. With a 10.5 average finish at Cup races in Delaware, Biffle should finish strongly and gain back a place or two in the Championship standings.

Kevin Harvick has not seen a win in his 19 starts at Dover International Speedway. Harvick has claimed seven top ten finished and two top fives at this track during his Cup career and will be looking to perform strongly on Sunday to move back up the leader board from his current third position in Chase standings. Kevin only posts three top ten finishes at Dover in his last ten starts; Harvick will have to run better than his norm in order to meet his goals for the week.

Kyle Busch has claimed a finish in the top five in more than half of his starts at the Delaware oval. Six of his 11 starts have resulted in top five finishes; the other five Cup starts have ended with Kyle outside of the top ten and just one of those gave Kyle a finish in the top 15. Kyle's last four Cup starts have ended with top five finishes; provided that Kyle stays out of any wrecks that occur nearby his position he should come out of Sunday's race with at least a top ten under his belt.


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 Carl Edwards has one win at this track, what's more impressive is that in his 12 Cup starts at Dover he has finished in the top ten eight times. After his 11th place finish last week Carl gained a spot in the standings and is now in eights place in the Chase. Carl finished eighth here in the spring and has only finished outside the top ten twice in his last ten Cup starts in Delaware. Wanting to make up more ground in his Chase for the Championship, Carl should run for a solid top ten this week if he performs as his 7.9 average finish indicates that he should.

My pick for the win this week is Jeff Gordon, with Clint Bowyer and Greg Biffle close behind. The remaining seven drivers I have picked for top ten finishes are Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice will air on SPEED Channel on Friday at 11:30 a.m.. Qualifications are on ESPN beginning at 3 p.m. Friday. The Saturday 12:30 p.m. Practice session will air on SPEED, but the later 1:50 p.m. Practice session will not be shown on television. NASCARaceday on SPEED is on the air Sunday morning at 10 a.m. and runs until Noon. NASCAR Countdown picks up on ESPN2 at Noon and AAA 400 coverage from Dover International Speedway will air on ESPN beginning at 1 p.m. Don't miss any of the exciting action in this week's second race in the Chase to the Championship.