Talladega AMP Energy 500 Race Preview...Beyond the Numbers



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 Talladega Super Speedway; the 2.66 mile Tri-oval in Northern Alabama that since 1968 has been entertaining race fans. We love to watch the boys get down and dirt, bump and rub, race hard all the way from the Green Flag to the Checkers. And there is always the “Big One” to look for. The Speedway is located in the northern part of Alabama, just south of Interstate 20 and about 50 miles to the east of Birmingham. The AMP Energy 500 will take place on Halloween – Sunday October 31st and drivers are hoping for treats instead of treats as they circumnavigate the 'Dega track 188 times on their way to 500.08 miles. Who will be at the top of the Leader Board when the Checkers fly?


Tony Stewart lost a spot in the points after last week's race in Martinsville...and he wants it back. With four of his last five starts at 'Dega finding Tony outside of the top ten at the end of the race, he needs to set a goal of duplicating his win in the 2008 AMP Energy 500. Other than that win, Stewart has taken the Checkered flag in the top ten on 11 other occasions. Tony find the top ten by the end of the day in more than 50% of his Cup starts at Talladega and in 54% of his Superspeedway starts. Will Tony get tricks or treats this year in his goodie bag?



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 Jimmie Johnson comes to Alabama the Chase leader but with 41% of his starts at Talladega ending with top ten finishes Johnson is definitely not a shoe-in this weekend. One start for Johnson has resulted in a win and four more times he has posted top five finishes. In recent appearances at 'Dega Jimmie has only found the top ten by the end of the race two out of his last five starts. Johnson has also had two finishes in the 30's and one 13th place finish in the spring 2008 race in his last five starts here.

Five-time Talladega winner Dale Earnhardt, Jr. comes into this weekend with only two of his past five starts ending in a top ten finish. Dale's last top ten came in the Spring 2009 race in Alabama, his last two starts have given him 11th and 13th place finishes. He has flirted with the top ten in all but one of his last six Cup starts at this track. Earnhardt has never started from the pole position at this Superspeedway but coming off of a seventh place finish last week he should have quite a bit of confidence about this Halloween weekend.

Denny Hamlin currently resides in the second position for the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship just six points behind Jimmie Johnson. Denny is in the best position anyone has been in after six Chase races to take over the points lead. With no wins at 'Dega and three top tens in nine starts, Denny posts a 19.3 average finish here. Hamlin has fought hard to gain on the points leader, however so don't expect a less-than-desirable average at this track to stop Denny from coming out with guns blazing.



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 Kevin Harvick is working at the 62 point deficit that exists between himself and the Chase points leader. Kevin sits in third position in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship, won in the Spring Talladega race, and has eight top ten finishes in his 18 Cup starts at this track. With a 20.8 for an average finish in his last five Cup starts in Alabama Harvick needs to improve on all but the most recent of his appearances at 'Dega – his win in this year's Spring race - and go for the points this weekend. Maybe Kevin should dress as a race winner for Halloween this year...

Jamie McMurray won the AMP Energy 500 in 2009, finished in the runner-up spot in the 2010 Spring race; we have seen Jamie make things happen this year when he expects to do well. McMurray has 16 starts at the Talladega Superspeedway; six of those starts have given him top ten finishes at the end of his day. One-third of all of Jamie's starts at Superspeedways have resulted in top tens. After a pole start at the Auto Club Speedway, a win two weeks ago in Charlotte, a win in the AMP Energy 500 in 2009, and a second place finish at his last Cup start in Alabama McMurray is coming to town with some big plans for a Halloween party in Victory Lane.

Mark Martin brought home a second place finish in Martinsville last week; can he do it again in Alabama? Martin certainly has the edge on the rest of the field in regard to experience. Mark has 45 Cup starts at Talladega dating back to 1982. Over the course of these last 28 years Martin has posted just two wins but claims a top ten finish in more than half of his starts at this Superspeedway. One-third of Mark's 69 top ten finishes at Superspeedways have happened at Talladega.



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 Kurt Busch is sitting in the ninth position in the Chase points standings. This could be Kurt's best chance for a big points weekend in the remainder of this season. Although this Busch brother has never won at 'Dega, he posts a 12.8 average finish and has found his way to the top ten in 13 of his 19 starts here. This Alabama track is by far his best Superspeedway – 42% of Kurt's Superspeedway top ten finishes have come at this track. Coming off a string of finishes outside of the top ten, Kurt has his eye on a strong run on Sunday at Hallow-Dega.

Clint Bowyer is out f the Chase but his season is far from over. After a dismal week at Martinsville found him in the 4th turn wall less than a third of the way through the race, he finished 38th due to a rear gear failure after his team got him back o the track post-accident. Clint comes to Talladega with the desire to gain points on 11th place Greg Biffle who is 90 points in front of Clint. Bowyer can claim three top ten finishes at 'Dega in his nine Cup Series starts and finished in the seventh position here in the Spring. Clint is going to be racing for his first Cup win at in Alabama Sunday in the AMP Energy 500.

Gaining two places in the Chase after Martinsville, but still 246 points behind Chase leader Johnson, Jeff Burton comes to Alabama this weekend with 13 top ten finishes to his credit at this track. Finishing in the top ten in three of his last five starts at 'Dega helps Jeff with the confidence aspect and the mental side of this weekend's Halloween special. Jeff typically performs just barely better at the Fall race in Talladega than in the Spring. His Fall race average finish is 18.06 whereas he posts a 18.64 for his Spring race average finish.



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 My pick for the win in Sunday's AMP Energy 500 is Jamie McMurray with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Kevin Harvick rounding out the top three. Also in the top ten we should expect to see Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Mark Martin, and Kurt Busch. Kyle Busch will be the cause of the “Big One” while racing against Jeff Gordon, taking Juan Pablo Montoya out of the race in the process. Watch for veteran driver Mark Martin to dominate early but fall off in the later stages of the race to the rear of the top ten.

The AMP Energy 500 practice on Friday will air at 2pm and 3:30pm on the SPEED Channel. Saturday brings us Live Practice, again on the SPEED Channel coming on-air at Noon. Raceday will be on the SPEED Channel from 10am until Noon. ESPN2 picks up coverage at Noon and will carry on until race coverage from Talladega starts on ESPN at 1pm. Don't miss this afternoon of Have-at-it-Boys racing on Halloween from the South.

Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com/

Kansas Price Chopper 400 Preview: Beyond the Numbers

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On this, the first weekend of October, NASCAR travels to the Midwest for a stop at Kansas Speedway. The Price Chopper 400 presented by Kraft Foods will get underway Sunday afternoon, where Cup Series driver will make a scheduled 267 laps around the 1.5 mile D-Oval. The third race in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship is pivotal for drivers like Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth, and Tony Stewart who reside at the low end of the current point standings.

In his nine Cup starts in Kansas, Kevin Harvick has placed in the top ten on three occasions. In the 2009 race at Kansas, Kevin was only able to post a 24th place finish. His 2010 season has been more consistent than last year, however. Harvick claims a 9.8th place average finish for the 2010 season and historically, he finishes nearly 40% of races at intermediate tracks in the top ten. After sliding back three spots in the Chase standings to the 5th spot, Kevin will be out to prove he is still a contender and can make his way back to the top of the board.

Jeff Gordon won the first two races at Kansas back in 2001 and 2002 but hasn't seen a win there since. Going into the weekend Jeff posts an impressive 8.9 average finish at Kansas, the best among Chase drivers. In Gordon's nine Cup starts at this track he has finished outside of the top ten just twice. Eighth in Championship Points, Jeff is likely to move up with a strong weekend performance.



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Another two-time winner at Kansas that NASCAR fans should keep an eye on this weekend is Tony Stewart. After winning the 2009 Price Chopper 400 but having back-to-back 39th and 40th place finishes the two years prior Tony shows 13.2 as his average finishing spot at Kansas Speedway. 162 points behind the Chase leader, Stewart will be driving for another win in Kansas this weekend.

After his win last week at Dover raised him to second place in the Chase standings, Jimmie Johnson is again a valid contender for the Championship. Johnson won at Kansas in 2008, has finished outside the top ten in just two of his eight starts, and shows a 10.2 average finish. Jimmie will be looking for Victory Lane again this weekend with hopes of getting to the top of the Chase Leader Board.



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 Points leader Denny Hamlin has five Cup starts at Kansas Speedway; just one of those has given him a top ten finish. With momentum and confidence in his court I cannot see how Denny will not find his way to a competitive race on Sunday, however. Hamlin has proven he is more than competent on the smaller ovals this year and with his win at Richmond, a ¾ mile D-oval, he should be able to transform his small track skills to the larger D-oval in Kansas.


Mark Martin comes to Kansas showing four top ten finishes in nine Cup Series starts at this track. Martin has won at this track once, and placed in the top five on one additional occasion. At Intermediate tracks, Mark has ended his day of racing in the top ten 56% of the time. 2010 has not been a great year for Mark by any means, but this could be his weekend to get back into the headlines.

Jamie McMurray has not seen a top ten finish at Kansas since his first two Cup races there in 2003 and 2004. Jamie qualified in the 4th position in 2009 but finished in a disappointing 31st place. Just on the edge of the Chase for the latter part of the regular season, McMurray finished just outside of the top ten last week in 13th place. Jamie has proven his worth this year on the big tracks but is under his average for the Intermediates. Throughout his career McMurray has historically finished in the top ten in 30% of his races at Intermediate tracks. With another good qualifying run at the Kansas Speedway and a mistake-free day in the pits, the #1 Earnhardt Ganassi Chevrolet should be in the top ten by then end of his 400 laps.



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 Martin Truex, Jr. is my surprise top ten finisher of the week. In his four Cup Series starts at Kansas his best finish has been a 11th in his freshman year of 2006. Truex made his way to a 16th place finish in the 2009 Price Chopper 400. What may work in Martin's favor is his 8th place performance this year at the August Michigan race. The Michigan two mile track has similar banking to Kansas all the way around and the same five degree banking on the long backstretch. The #56 NAPA Toyota Team should find that a similar set-up will find them running competitively throughout the day.


Greg Biffle, in 9th place in Chase standings, has the second best average finish at Kansas with a 9.0, just one-tenth behind Jeff Gordon. Greg won the 2007 race in Kansas, has finished in the top ten in another four of his eight career Cup starts at the track. With over 42% of Biffle's starts at Intermediate tracks ending with top ten finishes, and 62.5% of his starts at Kansas resulting in top tens, Greg should be coming to the Midwest with a good amount of confidence.

Juan Pablo Montoya has started three Cup Series races at Kansas. During each of three appearances he has improved his finish from the previous year. In 2007 Juan finished in 28th place, in 2008 he finished in 20th place. In 2009 he finished the day in the 4th spot. Almost 25% of Montoya's starts at Intermediate tracks have resulted in top ten finishes.



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 My winner pick for the Price Chopper 400 Presented by Kraft is Greg Biffle with Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin finishing in second and third. The remainder of my top ten includes Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, Jamie McMurray, Martin Truex, Jr., and Juan Pablo Montoya. I am calling for another week of stress induced mistakes by the Clint Bowyer team as they await the next round of appeals hearings and predict that both Busch brothers will be non-contenders in this race.

Sprint Cup Series practice will air on SPEED Channel Friday beginning at 1 p.m. and qualification begin at 4:30 p.m., also on SPEED. The first practice on Saturday, starting at 12:30 will not be televised and although the second practice begins at 1:50 p.m. it will not air until 6:30 p.m. Saturday evening on ESPN2. NASCAR RaceDay begins Sunday on SPEED at 10 a.m. And NASCAR Countdown can be seen on ESPN2 starting at Noon. The Price Chopper 400, Presented by Kraft Foods will come on air at 1 p.m. On Sunday. Tune in to see how the Chase Leader Board gets shaken up this week!

Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com/