NASCAR Ford 400 from Miami-Homestead Preview...Beyond the Numbers

Homestead Miami Speedway brings the 2010 NASCAR season to a close this weekend in southern Florida. This mile-and-a-half oval track has been around since 1995 and cost more than $70 million to construct. The last race of the NASCAR Cup season has been held at Homestead-Miami since 1999. The final race posts eight different winners in 11 races. This final race of the season is a 400 mile race with drivers circling the track 267 times before the Checkers wave. Two of the eleven Cup Series finales have been Green-White-Checker finishes whereas none have been shortened due to weather. Watch for some clouds on Sunday as the forecast is showing a 30% chance of rain in the afternoon.



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 Tony Stewart won the first two Cup races in Miami in 1999 and 2000. With three other top five finishes at this track, Tony posts a 12.8 average finish. Stewart has never had a DNF at this track; in addition, he has always finished on the lead lap. The #14 Office Depot team will be coming in this weekend looking to not only keep that streak alive but to add to a tally mark to the top five totals. Fighting for each position in the Chase, Tony has a place or two to gain back that have been lost over the last few weeks. Currently in the ninth position in Chase standings Tony Stewart could finish the season, realistically, as high as fifth or as low as 11th depending on Sunday's performance.


Carl Edwards can't do much this weekend to move up in the standings; he is 218 points behind his nearest competitor and 246 points behind Chase leader Denny Hamlin. He does have several drivers behind him in the points who are going to be fighting to take Carl's fourth place position away. With a 6.5 average finish at Homestead it is unlikely that any driver behind Carl in points will be able to take the place from him, however. In his six Cup Series starts at this track Edwards' lowest finish has been 14th place, he has five top ten finishes, and one win from 2008. Carl could prove to be the man that Chase contenders have to catch in order to gain points towards the top of the Chase Leader Board. Carl also has momentum on his side coming into Miami; with two back flips in a Cup and a Nationwide Series race in the past two weeks Edwards has confidence.


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Our Chase leader coming into Homestead is Denny Hamlin. With a narrow 15 point lead over second place there is no room for error on Sunday. In five Cup starts in Miami Denny posts three top five finishes but he has never started better than 25th position. Hamlin has proven over and over this season and in past performances at this track that his starting position does not matter to his finishing spot. With Denny's track record here if he can make it to the front without being collected in an accident he may take the win and the Championship. Hamlin's first priority should be to get all the bonus points that he can for leading a lap, the most laps, and for the win.

Kurt Busch has nine starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one win, and three other top five finishes. Historically Kurt has either finished in the top five at this track or outside of the top 20. Due to this one extreme or the other performance at this track, Busch has just a 16.9 average finish here. This is another driver who can claim three of his last five Cup starts in Miami have resulted in top five finishes. Unfortunately, his other two of the last five have been finishes of dead last. If Kurt can stay out of trouble on the track Sunday he could improve his current 10th place standings in the Chase.



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 Jimmie Johnson is in a place he hasn't been for the last four years; he is not coming into the Chase finale with the points lead. Jimmie is knocking on the door, just 15 points behind the leader. It is going to take a stronger than normal performance from Johnson to claim his fifth Championship title – one-third of Johnson's races here have given up top five finishes. Another third of his Cup starts at Homestead find Jimmie finishing outside of the top 15. His average finish of 16.9 is an accurate representation of an average day at this track for Johnson. With just one finish inside the top five in the past five years in the season finale Johnson might be expected to finish in the top ten but would be a surprise top three finisher. It will take a outstanding performance by each member of the Lowe's #48 Team on Sunday to bring home a win or a fifth consecutive Championship.


Another contender for the Sprint Cup Championship is Kevin Harvick. Coming into Miami in the third place in points, Harvick is 46 points behind leader Denny Hamlin. If Kevin wants to take the top spot away from Hamlin, Harvick will have to lead laps and hope for an error by the #11 Team. With an 8.4 average finish at this track Kevin may be a contender for the win by the end of Sunday's race. Harvick has not won at this track but does claim seven top tens to his credit. Three of Kevin's last four starts on this mile-and-a-half track has given him top five finishes. It will take another top five, and possibly a win for Harvick to take the Championship this year. One scenario in which Harvick takes the Championship is if he wins the race, leads the most laps, and Hamlin finishes seventh or worse.


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Ryan Newman has incentive to have a good weekend at Homestead-Miami – a new baby girl. Ryan's wife Krissie gave birth Thursday to Brooklyn Sage Newman. In past seasons new fathers and new husbands tend to often have great performances in the race following the event. Ryan's numbers at Homestead show that he typically qualifies better than he finishes. Newman posts a 9.75 average starting position here but just a 20.6 finishing average. As a non-Chase contender Newman really has nothing to lose and can run on the adrenaline of this week. With no top five finish at Homestead since 2005 Ryan is more than due for a good day in Miami; this should be the weekend he will do it.

Jeff Gordon sits in the sixth position in the Chase and could realistically make his way as high as fourth with a strong finish at Homestead. With a 9.5 average finish here it will be tough to keep Gordon out of the top ten. He claims no wins but nine top ten finishes and five top fives in his 11 Cup starts here. That adds up to an 81% chance that Jeff will find his way into the top ten by the end of the day. A slip by one of the drivers in front of him in the standings could move him up a position or two. It's been a long time since fans have seen a Jeff Gordon win; it's unlikely that one will come this week but he should be running strong with the leaders at the end of the day.



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  Keep an eye on Clint Bowyer this weekend. With four Cup starts under his belt at Homestead-Miami Speedway Clint has finished inside of the top ten on two occasions, finished 11th once, and had just one finish outside of the top 15. With a 75% chance that Clint will finish Sunday in the top 15 there is a good chance his points standing could improve as well. In the 11th spot after a 21st place finish last week lost him a spot in the Chase Bowyer will be doing whatever he can to gain every point he can. The last track that Clint raced with almost flat straightaways and mid-banked turns was New Hampshire; Bowyer gained a win that weekend.

Greg Biffle moved into the eighth spot in the Chase after a fourth place finish last week in Phoenix. Biffle posted a fifth place finish the week before; steadily moving up through the points could prove to give the confidence that this team needs to move up one or two more spots in the season-ender. With eight starts in Miami Greg has an interesting statistic – he either wins or he finishes outside of the top ten. Three wins in 2004, 2005, and 2006, plus five finishes 13th or lower give Biffle a 13.5 average finish at this track. Watch for Greg to be near the front of the field throughout most of the day on Sunday regardless of where he starts.


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 My pick for the win on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway is Carl Edwards with Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart rounding out the top three. Also with top ten finishes should be Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, and Greg Biffle. I'm calling for a fuel mileage race at the end of the Ford 400 this weekend with Jimmie Johnson being forced to drop back to conserve fuel, causing him to not reach the top of the Chase points standings. Hamlin will take a close top five finish after leading the most laps on Sunday and come out on top in the Chase to the Championship.

Tune in all weekend for NASCAR season finale coverage spread across several networks. ESPN2 has first practice Friday at 11:30 am and Qualifying on Friday afternoon coming on air at 3 pm. SPEED Channel picks up the second practice on Saturday at 1:30 pm then televisions should switch to ESPN2 for final practice at 3pm. RaceDay coverage starts on SPEED Channel at 9 am and continues on ESPN2 at Noon for NASCAR Countdown. Coverage of the Ford 400 starts at 1 pm on ESPN. Don't miss a minute of final week coverage with have-at-it-boys racing from Homestead-Miami Speedway where every point will be extremely important.



Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com

Fontana Auto Club 400 Preview: Beyond the Numbers

For the fourth race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship NASCAR travels to California. The Auto Club Speedway, located in Fontana California, is a 2 mile D-shaped oval. Lying due east of Los Angeles by about 50 miles, the Auto Club Speedway will host the Pepsi Max 400 on Sunday afternoon as NASCAR Cup Series drivers make 200 laps around the circuit for 400 miles. Not only has this years fall race in California been shortened by 100 laps, but this will be the last running of the fall race at Fontana – as part of NASCAR's Chase realignment the fall race has fallen victim to poor attendance and is not part of the 201 schedule.



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 Jeff Gordon has a 10.9 average finish at Fontana, with ten top ten finishes coming from his 20 Cup series starts at this track. A disappointing 20th finish at the Auto Club Speedway in February broke a string of back to back second place finishes for Jeff that he had in 2009. With Chevrolet winning four of the last five fall races at Fontana, and a Hendrick Motorsports driver the last three Jeff should have the team knowledge to get it done, if the cards fall the right way.

Keep an eye on Carl Edwards this weekend; he moved up two spots after last week and has taken over the number four place in season points. Only two of Carl's starts in Fontana have resulted in finishes outside of the top ten. His 7.2 average finish at the Auto Club Speedway reflects the consistency Edwards has been able to bring to this track. His early-season performance in 2010 was less than stellar; Carl finished 13th at the end of the day. With four of Edwards' last five races resulting in top ten finishes, however he has the momentum coming into this race to post a finish that will continue his climb toward the top of the Chase leader board.



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 Jimmie Johnson has won the last three late season races at the Auto Club Speedway and has wins in four of the last six races held in Fontana. As Chase points leader, and four-time in a row season Champion Johnson comes to Fontana with more than a healthy dose of experience at winning here. Jimmie's average finish of 5.5 and 11 top ten finishes in 15 starts in Fontana track shows that he could come out on top again this week and increase his points lead over the other Chase drivers. One thing that could hurt Jimmie as he goes for another win is that he has 50 fewer laps to get to the front of the pack.

With the drama and ensuing stress that the Clint Bowyer team has experienced since New Hampshire finally over, Clint finds himself 252 points behind the Points leader and in the 12th position. Bowyer said before the Kansas race that he doesn't expect to win the Chase after the 150 point penalty but does see finishing the season in the top five as a realistic goal. To reach the top five, Bowyer needs to come out strong this weekend and post a top ten finish, at the very least. With an average finish at the Auto Club Speedway of 12.0 and only one of his nine Cup starts showing a top five finish Clint will have his work cut out for him as he drives toward the front of the pack. If determination alone can do it, Bowyer will find his way to the top ten by the 200th lap on Sunday but it's going to have to be a good day for the RCR # 33 team.



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 Greg Biffle moved up one spot in the Chase after his win last week; Biffle would like to bring home another trophy and gain more points on the Chase leaders this weekend. With 15 starts at Fontana Greg can claim five top ten finishes – including one win. Three of Biffle's last five starts have resulted in top ten finishes, including a 10th place finish at the end of the February race at the Auto Club Speedway. Coming off of a win at Kansas, Greg has confidence and may ride the wave of momentum to another top ten at Fontana.

Losing four spots in Chase standings after a disappointing 21st place finish at Kansas last week, Kyle Busch is coming into Fontana in free fall. With an average of 10.8, Kyle posts a top ten finish in more than 66% of the races he starts at the Auto Club Speedway. Knowing the track can go a long way in getting a driver to the front and in twelve Cup Series starts at Fontana, Busch has eight top ten finishes to prove that he knows how to navigate this track. Chances are that we will see Kyle near the front of the field by the end of Sunday's race.

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Matt Kenseth is 149 points behind Chase points leaders and sits in 11th place. Matt has a 9.1 average finish at Fontana and comes to this track with 12 top ten finishes is his 17 starts here. Kenseth has shown in the past he can be a contender at the Auto Club Speedway; only one of his last ten starts here has found him outside of the top ten by the end of the day. With three previous wins, there seems to be little reason to expect that Matt will finish any lower than the top ten this weekend.

With just three Cup Series starts under his belt at Fontana, Joey Logano comes to this weekend with a 15th place average finish at the Auto Club Speedway. Logano has been fairly quiet in recent weeks, but this could be the weekend he gets back into headlines. Joey posted a 5th place finish in California in the February race and arrives in Fontana with confidence that he can get the job done. A strong qualifying run will be key to getting Logano off to a good start on Sunday.



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 Tony Stewart is looking for his first win at Fontana. In Stewart's 18 Cup starts at the Auto Club Speedway he has laid claim to 10 top ten finishes but has not made a trip to the Winner's Circle. Tony is coming off of a solid fourth place finish at Kansas, and has a fourth place finish at his last trip to the Auto Club Speedway to remember. Consistency is the key to the remainder of Stewart's season, as he is in 10th place in the Chase standings; it's time for Tony to move up and finish strong to keep his Chase hopes alive.

With 14 starts and five top ten finishes to his credit at the Auto Club Speedway Jamie McMurray shows 16.4 as his average finishing spot at this track. Just outside of the top ten at Kansas, Jamie finished 11th. McMurray will be looking to improve on that result as he makes his way through the field on Sunday. He started the season with a win, then posted a win at Indy; can he show that he can win late in the season, too? Although this may be Jamie's best track, he should be in the top ten by the end of Sunday's race.



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 Winner pick for Fontana is Tony Stewart with Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson filling the remainder of the top three. Also predicted to finish in the top ten are Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, and Jamie McMurray. With this being the halfway mark in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship it is do-or-die time for many Chase drivers. I call for Kurt Busch to end up in the middle of the pack at the close of the race, causing him to drop back in the standings and for Harvick to have an uncharacteristically rough day with pit stop problems leaving him behind the leaders.

Practice at Fontana comes on the air Friday at 3 p.m. on ESPN2 for practice, qualifications will also be on ESPN2 being aired at 6:30 p.m. Saturday's practices will not be aired on television but occur at 1:30 p.m. and 2:50 p.m. RaceDay on SPEED begins Sunday at Noon, and coverage switches to Pre-Race on ESPN at 2 p.m. The Pepsi Max 400 goes live on ESPN at 3 p.m. Sunday afternoon. Don't miss the fifth race in the NASCAR Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship as drivers continue to battle for position, on the track and in the points.

Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com

Kansas Price Chopper 400 Preview: Beyond the Numbers

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On this, the first weekend of October, NASCAR travels to the Midwest for a stop at Kansas Speedway. The Price Chopper 400 presented by Kraft Foods will get underway Sunday afternoon, where Cup Series driver will make a scheduled 267 laps around the 1.5 mile D-Oval. The third race in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship is pivotal for drivers like Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth, and Tony Stewart who reside at the low end of the current point standings.

In his nine Cup starts in Kansas, Kevin Harvick has placed in the top ten on three occasions. In the 2009 race at Kansas, Kevin was only able to post a 24th place finish. His 2010 season has been more consistent than last year, however. Harvick claims a 9.8th place average finish for the 2010 season and historically, he finishes nearly 40% of races at intermediate tracks in the top ten. After sliding back three spots in the Chase standings to the 5th spot, Kevin will be out to prove he is still a contender and can make his way back to the top of the board.

Jeff Gordon won the first two races at Kansas back in 2001 and 2002 but hasn't seen a win there since. Going into the weekend Jeff posts an impressive 8.9 average finish at Kansas, the best among Chase drivers. In Gordon's nine Cup starts at this track he has finished outside of the top ten just twice. Eighth in Championship Points, Jeff is likely to move up with a strong weekend performance.



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Another two-time winner at Kansas that NASCAR fans should keep an eye on this weekend is Tony Stewart. After winning the 2009 Price Chopper 400 but having back-to-back 39th and 40th place finishes the two years prior Tony shows 13.2 as his average finishing spot at Kansas Speedway. 162 points behind the Chase leader, Stewart will be driving for another win in Kansas this weekend.

After his win last week at Dover raised him to second place in the Chase standings, Jimmie Johnson is again a valid contender for the Championship. Johnson won at Kansas in 2008, has finished outside the top ten in just two of his eight starts, and shows a 10.2 average finish. Jimmie will be looking for Victory Lane again this weekend with hopes of getting to the top of the Chase Leader Board.



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 Points leader Denny Hamlin has five Cup starts at Kansas Speedway; just one of those has given him a top ten finish. With momentum and confidence in his court I cannot see how Denny will not find his way to a competitive race on Sunday, however. Hamlin has proven he is more than competent on the smaller ovals this year and with his win at Richmond, a ¾ mile D-oval, he should be able to transform his small track skills to the larger D-oval in Kansas.


Mark Martin comes to Kansas showing four top ten finishes in nine Cup Series starts at this track. Martin has won at this track once, and placed in the top five on one additional occasion. At Intermediate tracks, Mark has ended his day of racing in the top ten 56% of the time. 2010 has not been a great year for Mark by any means, but this could be his weekend to get back into the headlines.

Jamie McMurray has not seen a top ten finish at Kansas since his first two Cup races there in 2003 and 2004. Jamie qualified in the 4th position in 2009 but finished in a disappointing 31st place. Just on the edge of the Chase for the latter part of the regular season, McMurray finished just outside of the top ten last week in 13th place. Jamie has proven his worth this year on the big tracks but is under his average for the Intermediates. Throughout his career McMurray has historically finished in the top ten in 30% of his races at Intermediate tracks. With another good qualifying run at the Kansas Speedway and a mistake-free day in the pits, the #1 Earnhardt Ganassi Chevrolet should be in the top ten by then end of his 400 laps.



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 Martin Truex, Jr. is my surprise top ten finisher of the week. In his four Cup Series starts at Kansas his best finish has been a 11th in his freshman year of 2006. Truex made his way to a 16th place finish in the 2009 Price Chopper 400. What may work in Martin's favor is his 8th place performance this year at the August Michigan race. The Michigan two mile track has similar banking to Kansas all the way around and the same five degree banking on the long backstretch. The #56 NAPA Toyota Team should find that a similar set-up will find them running competitively throughout the day.


Greg Biffle, in 9th place in Chase standings, has the second best average finish at Kansas with a 9.0, just one-tenth behind Jeff Gordon. Greg won the 2007 race in Kansas, has finished in the top ten in another four of his eight career Cup starts at the track. With over 42% of Biffle's starts at Intermediate tracks ending with top ten finishes, and 62.5% of his starts at Kansas resulting in top tens, Greg should be coming to the Midwest with a good amount of confidence.

Juan Pablo Montoya has started three Cup Series races at Kansas. During each of three appearances he has improved his finish from the previous year. In 2007 Juan finished in 28th place, in 2008 he finished in 20th place. In 2009 he finished the day in the 4th spot. Almost 25% of Montoya's starts at Intermediate tracks have resulted in top ten finishes.



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 My winner pick for the Price Chopper 400 Presented by Kraft is Greg Biffle with Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin finishing in second and third. The remainder of my top ten includes Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin, Jamie McMurray, Martin Truex, Jr., and Juan Pablo Montoya. I am calling for another week of stress induced mistakes by the Clint Bowyer team as they await the next round of appeals hearings and predict that both Busch brothers will be non-contenders in this race.

Sprint Cup Series practice will air on SPEED Channel Friday beginning at 1 p.m. and qualification begin at 4:30 p.m., also on SPEED. The first practice on Saturday, starting at 12:30 will not be televised and although the second practice begins at 1:50 p.m. it will not air until 6:30 p.m. Saturday evening on ESPN2. NASCAR RaceDay begins Sunday on SPEED at 10 a.m. And NASCAR Countdown can be seen on ESPN2 starting at Noon. The Price Chopper 400, Presented by Kraft Foods will come on air at 1 p.m. On Sunday. Tune in to see how the Chase Leader Board gets shaken up this week!

Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com/