Fontana Auto Club 400 Preview: Beyond the Numbers

For the fourth race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship NASCAR travels to California. The Auto Club Speedway, located in Fontana California, is a 2 mile D-shaped oval. Lying due east of Los Angeles by about 50 miles, the Auto Club Speedway will host the Pepsi Max 400 on Sunday afternoon as NASCAR Cup Series drivers make 200 laps around the circuit for 400 miles. Not only has this years fall race in California been shortened by 100 laps, but this will be the last running of the fall race at Fontana – as part of NASCAR's Chase realignment the fall race has fallen victim to poor attendance and is not part of the 201 schedule.



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 Jeff Gordon has a 10.9 average finish at Fontana, with ten top ten finishes coming from his 20 Cup series starts at this track. A disappointing 20th finish at the Auto Club Speedway in February broke a string of back to back second place finishes for Jeff that he had in 2009. With Chevrolet winning four of the last five fall races at Fontana, and a Hendrick Motorsports driver the last three Jeff should have the team knowledge to get it done, if the cards fall the right way.

Keep an eye on Carl Edwards this weekend; he moved up two spots after last week and has taken over the number four place in season points. Only two of Carl's starts in Fontana have resulted in finishes outside of the top ten. His 7.2 average finish at the Auto Club Speedway reflects the consistency Edwards has been able to bring to this track. His early-season performance in 2010 was less than stellar; Carl finished 13th at the end of the day. With four of Edwards' last five races resulting in top ten finishes, however he has the momentum coming into this race to post a finish that will continue his climb toward the top of the Chase leader board.



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 Jimmie Johnson has won the last three late season races at the Auto Club Speedway and has wins in four of the last six races held in Fontana. As Chase points leader, and four-time in a row season Champion Johnson comes to Fontana with more than a healthy dose of experience at winning here. Jimmie's average finish of 5.5 and 11 top ten finishes in 15 starts in Fontana track shows that he could come out on top again this week and increase his points lead over the other Chase drivers. One thing that could hurt Jimmie as he goes for another win is that he has 50 fewer laps to get to the front of the pack.

With the drama and ensuing stress that the Clint Bowyer team has experienced since New Hampshire finally over, Clint finds himself 252 points behind the Points leader and in the 12th position. Bowyer said before the Kansas race that he doesn't expect to win the Chase after the 150 point penalty but does see finishing the season in the top five as a realistic goal. To reach the top five, Bowyer needs to come out strong this weekend and post a top ten finish, at the very least. With an average finish at the Auto Club Speedway of 12.0 and only one of his nine Cup starts showing a top five finish Clint will have his work cut out for him as he drives toward the front of the pack. If determination alone can do it, Bowyer will find his way to the top ten by the 200th lap on Sunday but it's going to have to be a good day for the RCR # 33 team.



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 Greg Biffle moved up one spot in the Chase after his win last week; Biffle would like to bring home another trophy and gain more points on the Chase leaders this weekend. With 15 starts at Fontana Greg can claim five top ten finishes – including one win. Three of Biffle's last five starts have resulted in top ten finishes, including a 10th place finish at the end of the February race at the Auto Club Speedway. Coming off of a win at Kansas, Greg has confidence and may ride the wave of momentum to another top ten at Fontana.

Losing four spots in Chase standings after a disappointing 21st place finish at Kansas last week, Kyle Busch is coming into Fontana in free fall. With an average of 10.8, Kyle posts a top ten finish in more than 66% of the races he starts at the Auto Club Speedway. Knowing the track can go a long way in getting a driver to the front and in twelve Cup Series starts at Fontana, Busch has eight top ten finishes to prove that he knows how to navigate this track. Chances are that we will see Kyle near the front of the field by the end of Sunday's race.

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Matt Kenseth is 149 points behind Chase points leaders and sits in 11th place. Matt has a 9.1 average finish at Fontana and comes to this track with 12 top ten finishes is his 17 starts here. Kenseth has shown in the past he can be a contender at the Auto Club Speedway; only one of his last ten starts here has found him outside of the top ten by the end of the day. With three previous wins, there seems to be little reason to expect that Matt will finish any lower than the top ten this weekend.

With just three Cup Series starts under his belt at Fontana, Joey Logano comes to this weekend with a 15th place average finish at the Auto Club Speedway. Logano has been fairly quiet in recent weeks, but this could be the weekend he gets back into headlines. Joey posted a 5th place finish in California in the February race and arrives in Fontana with confidence that he can get the job done. A strong qualifying run will be key to getting Logano off to a good start on Sunday.



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 Tony Stewart is looking for his first win at Fontana. In Stewart's 18 Cup starts at the Auto Club Speedway he has laid claim to 10 top ten finishes but has not made a trip to the Winner's Circle. Tony is coming off of a solid fourth place finish at Kansas, and has a fourth place finish at his last trip to the Auto Club Speedway to remember. Consistency is the key to the remainder of Stewart's season, as he is in 10th place in the Chase standings; it's time for Tony to move up and finish strong to keep his Chase hopes alive.

With 14 starts and five top ten finishes to his credit at the Auto Club Speedway Jamie McMurray shows 16.4 as his average finishing spot at this track. Just outside of the top ten at Kansas, Jamie finished 11th. McMurray will be looking to improve on that result as he makes his way through the field on Sunday. He started the season with a win, then posted a win at Indy; can he show that he can win late in the season, too? Although this may be Jamie's best track, he should be in the top ten by the end of Sunday's race.



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 Winner pick for Fontana is Tony Stewart with Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson filling the remainder of the top three. Also predicted to finish in the top ten are Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, and Jamie McMurray. With this being the halfway mark in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship it is do-or-die time for many Chase drivers. I call for Kurt Busch to end up in the middle of the pack at the close of the race, causing him to drop back in the standings and for Harvick to have an uncharacteristically rough day with pit stop problems leaving him behind the leaders.

Practice at Fontana comes on the air Friday at 3 p.m. on ESPN2 for practice, qualifications will also be on ESPN2 being aired at 6:30 p.m. Saturday's practices will not be aired on television but occur at 1:30 p.m. and 2:50 p.m. RaceDay on SPEED begins Sunday at Noon, and coverage switches to Pre-Race on ESPN at 2 p.m. The Pepsi Max 400 goes live on ESPN at 3 p.m. Sunday afternoon. Don't miss the fifth race in the NASCAR Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship as drivers continue to battle for position, on the track and in the points.

Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com

AAA 400 at the Dover International Speedway...By the numbers and Beyond

This week NASCAR heads to Dover International Speedway, a one-mile track located just west of Delaware Bay and north of Dover. The AAA 400 will run Sunday afternoon as the second race in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship. Drivers will navigate the oval at Dover 400 times before the checkers fly.


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After Clint Bowyer's impressive run last week at Louden that moved him from 12th to second in the Chase standings, his car failed post-race inspection. NASCAR officials determined that the rear end of the RCR chassis did not meet NASCAR-approved specifications. The team was penalized through a suspension for Crew Chief Shane Wilson for the next six races, and more importantly 150 points. This penalty takes Clint from second place back down to 12th, 185 points behind points leader Denny Hamlin.

Although Clint has not won at this track, he has finished in the top ten in three of the nine Cup races at Dover. Bowyer finished in seventh place at this track in the spring. With an average finish at Dover of 14.7 Clint will have to step up his game to finish near the front of the field and regain some of his lost points. As Clint said after his win last weekend, “...if we can continue to ride that momentum wave through this Chase, we can have a shot at it just like we did in 2007.”

Jeff Gordon comes to Dover in the fifth place in the Chase standings after a sixth place finish in New Hampshire helped him move up three spots in the standings. Without a win this season, Gordon is hungry for victory. Gordon has two wins at Dover, but the last was in 2001. Through 1995 and 1996 Jeff won three in a row at Dover. In the spring race this year Gordon posted an 11th place finish. With Jeff's 35 previous Cup races at Dover International Speedway lending their experience, this could be week he ends his losing streak.

After losing five spots in the Chase standings last week with a disappointing 25th place finish last week at Louden, Jimmie Johnson has to come to Dover to prove he is still the man to beat. Johnson has claimed five wins in his 17 Cup starts and 11 top ten finishes at Dover. Jimmie and his #48 Lowe's Team have the knowledge to tame this mile track, come out with a top ten finish this week, and move back up toward the top of the Chase leader board.


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 Not giving up the number one spot in the Chase standings easily, Denny Hamlin will likely come out as a man on a mission this weekend. With nine Cup starts at this track, he has claimed three top ten finishes but no wins. Hamlin has finished fourth twice at Dover, including in this year's spring race. Denny has been a solid performer at almost every track this year, his all-around racing ability will likely gain him another top ten this week, and keep him at least near the top of the Chase leader board.

Tony Stewart is another driver who lost five spots in the Chase standings after a bad finish last week. After running out of gas with the white flag in sight while leading the race, Stewart finished 24th in New Hampshire. Coming into Dover, Tony has to feel confident that his team can put together another strong run. Stewart has finished in the top ten in his last three appearances in Delaware for Cup racing, and in his 23 Cup starts at Dover International Speedway has posted five wins and 15 top ten finishes. Watch for Tony to try to move up the leader board a few spots with a solid run on Sunday.

Gaining momentum last week is Dale Earnhardt, Jr. after a fourth place finish last week. Out of the Chase the only pressure Dale feels is the pressure to win the race for his Hendricks #88 Team. In 21 Cup starts at this track Earnhardt has finished in the top ten seven times and went to Victory Lane once. Dale finished 30th in Delaware in the spring and has not seen a top ten finish here since the first Dover race in 2007. Earnhardt should be able to put together a good run this week and crack the top ten again.

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Greg Biffle slipped two spots in the Chase standings after finishing 17th last week. He has proven himself able to stay with the competition at this track in the past, however. With 10 top ten finishes, six top fives and two wins at Dover Greg could be a contender for the top spot this weekend. With a 10.5 average finish at Cup races in Delaware, Biffle should finish strongly and gain back a place or two in the Championship standings.

Kevin Harvick has not seen a win in his 19 starts at Dover International Speedway. Harvick has claimed seven top ten finished and two top fives at this track during his Cup career and will be looking to perform strongly on Sunday to move back up the leader board from his current third position in Chase standings. Kevin only posts three top ten finishes at Dover in his last ten starts; Harvick will have to run better than his norm in order to meet his goals for the week.

Kyle Busch has claimed a finish in the top five in more than half of his starts at the Delaware oval. Six of his 11 starts have resulted in top five finishes; the other five Cup starts have ended with Kyle outside of the top ten and just one of those gave Kyle a finish in the top 15. Kyle's last four Cup starts have ended with top five finishes; provided that Kyle stays out of any wrecks that occur nearby his position he should come out of Sunday's race with at least a top ten under his belt.


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 Carl Edwards has one win at this track, what's more impressive is that in his 12 Cup starts at Dover he has finished in the top ten eight times. After his 11th place finish last week Carl gained a spot in the standings and is now in eights place in the Chase. Carl finished eighth here in the spring and has only finished outside the top ten twice in his last ten Cup starts in Delaware. Wanting to make up more ground in his Chase for the Championship, Carl should run for a solid top ten this week if he performs as his 7.9 average finish indicates that he should.

My pick for the win this week is Jeff Gordon, with Clint Bowyer and Greg Biffle close behind. The remaining seven drivers I have picked for top ten finishes are Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series practice will air on SPEED Channel on Friday at 11:30 a.m.. Qualifications are on ESPN beginning at 3 p.m. Friday. The Saturday 12:30 p.m. Practice session will air on SPEED, but the later 1:50 p.m. Practice session will not be shown on television. NASCARaceday on SPEED is on the air Sunday morning at 10 a.m. and runs until Noon. NASCAR Countdown picks up on ESPN2 at Noon and AAA 400 coverage from Dover International Speedway will air on ESPN beginning at 1 p.m. Don't miss any of the exciting action in this week's second race in the Chase to the Championship.