The 2011 NASCAR Points system has been announced. Brian France totes the new system as a way to increase competition and make the Points structure easier to understand. Is it easier to understand? Definitely.
Even the most casual fan can understand this after a short explanation. Diehard fans see immediately that it is a very straightforward points structure with no similarities to the old system when the top third was separated by five points, middle third by four points, and lower third by three points per finishing spot. You could figure the old points system in your head but it took a minute or two.
This year you check where your driver finished, subtract that number from 43 (the total number of drivers in the race), add 1 and you know how many points your driver receives. Your favorite driver finished 2nd? 43 - 2 + 1 = 42 points. He finished 32nd? 43 - 32 + 1 = 12 points. 41st place finisher? 43 - 41 + 1 = 3 points.
New Cup Points system:
Points awarded for finishing spot are from 1 to 43 points.
The Winner gets 43 points, last place gets 1 point. Everything in between fills in accordingly (2nd gets 42 points, 3rd gets 41, etc...).
Leading a lap gets you 1 bonus point.
Leading the most laps gets you 1 bonus point.
Winner of the race gets 3 bonus points.
The winner of the race will always either get 47 or 48 points. 43 points for winning + 3 bonus points for winning the race + 1 bonus point for leading a lap = 47 points. If that driver also leads the most laps then the driver receives 1 additional bonus point.
So, how does this compare to the old points system in regard to Brian France's claim of "raising the competition level?" Check this out:
Old Points: Race Winner received 544% more points than last place.
New Points: Winner receives 4700% more points than last place.
(Above stat is based on assumption of the winner receives 47 points scenario and last place does not lead a lap)
Old Points: Winner bonus was 2.7% of winners points.
New Points: Winner bonus is 6.9% of winners points.
Old Points: 2nd place received 91.9% of 1st place points.
New Points: 2nd place receives 91.4% of 1st place points.
(Above stat is based on assumption of the winner receives 47 points scenario and 2nd place leads at least 1 lap)
Old Points: Bonus points for leading a lap or most laps 2.7% of winner points.
New Points: Bonus point for leading a lap or the most laps is 2.1% of winner points, as based on 47 point scenario.
So, although the new points system awards a lesser percentage of bonus points for leading a lap or leading the most laps the new points system does significantly award a higher percentage of points for finishing higher in the field and for winning the race.
At the end of the first 26 races we will still enter Chase mode. The difference is that the top ten in points get a guaranteed spot the Chase. The other two spots are "Wildcard" positions. The 11th and 12th places in the Chase will be determined by the number of wins on the season. Both 11th and 12th place drivers must be in the top 20 in overall standings to be eligible.
Example: If your driver wins three races in the beginning of the season but has four DNFs that cause him to drop out of the top ten in points, he still makes the Chase if he has the most or second most wins of any driver in positions 11 through 20 in the standings.
In my opinion, this will definitely create more competitive racing. A guy can be sitting in 19th position in points after the 25th race because of getting caught up in wrecks, mechanical difficulties, or penalties but if that driver has won more races than the other guys in the 11th through 20th positions he is still in the Chase. Going into that 26th race if one driver in the 11th through 20th positions has won two races and three other guys have won one race each, that is going to make for some hot racing during that last race before the Chase.
Will this increase fan passion for NASCAR? Will it cause more competitive racing? A tighter race to the Chase? We are all going to have to stick around through at least this season and find out. In reality, it may be four or five years before it can be seen whether this change was good, bad, or had no change of viewership, fan passion, and attendance but I do not see this change as a bad thing at all.
Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Kevin Conway: NASCAR's 2010 Sprint Cup Raybestos Rookie of the Year
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| Courtesy of Kevin Conway/ExtenZe Racing's Facebook Page |
Conway started 28 races during the 2010 season and finished 82 percent of his starts. Conway's average starting place this season was 40.3 and his statistics show a 32.6 average finish for 2010. Kevin finished 35th in Cup Series season points after earning 1,830 points throughout the season and bringing home more than $2.5 million in earnings.
Though Conway receives the Rookie of the Year award as the only qualifying Cup Series rookie in the field, if Landon Cassill had declared himself for the ROTY award and been in one more race in 2010, Conway would have still come out on top. If driver Terry Cook, who declared himself eligible for ROTY at the beginning of the season, had stayed in for more than three Cup races, it is likely that Kevin would have beaten Cook for the honors as well. In the three races Cook participated in during the 2010 season, Conway finished an average 10 spots better in all three. Conway earned the 2010 Rookie of the Year award by keeping the car out of trouble on the track, qualifying for and finishing races, and through overcoming much adversity during his 2010 season.
Considering that before the season started, Front Row Motorsports opted to not allow Kevin an attempt to qualify for the Daytona 500 because of his lack of superspeedway experience, it is ironic that Kevin's best finish of 2010 came at the Coke Zero 400 in July at Daytona. His 14th-place finish in that race is also the best finish for Front Row Motorsports since the team formed in 2005.
Even with FRM's best finish of their five-year history, after his 21st race of the 2010 season Kevin and ExtenZe Racing left FRM because of a disagreement regarding sponsor payments. Showing himself to not be bitter about the split, Conway said, "It was exciting for me to be able to give Front Row their best finish ... it's unfortunate that we can't work it out to remain in the car for the immediate future."
In week 24 Conway and ExtenZe Racing debuted with Robby Gordon Motorsports. The remainder of the season proved to have several rough spots. During his time with Front Row Motorsports, Conway had just three DNFs in his first 21 races in 2010. In the last seven races of the season, the team shows six DNFs with Robby Gordon Motorsports. With a variety of issues plaguing the Robby Gordon Motorsports Toyota, ranging from a transmission problem and engine failure to brake issues and a bad fuel pump, Kevin said that it felt like going from the frying pan into the fire.
When asked how much he is looking forward to the 2011 season after achieving his best finish of 2010 at Daytona, Kevin said, “I'm really looking forward to getting back to Daytona. There was a lot of track changes and handling that came into play last year.”
But Conway expects that with the new surface at Daytona International Speedway, the aerodynamic package will come into play more and with that there are new opportunities. Kevin went on to say, “The new track surface levels the playing field to some extent. The teams who have ability to do research can capitalize on that ... I expect more three- and four-wide racing and better handling.” He said that ultimately, everyone's 2011 season will depend on surviving the races and coming away with decent finishes.
With plans to run both Cup and Nationwide races in 2011, Conway said that hitting the reset button with the switch to Robby Gordon Motorsports led to having limited resources in the latter part the season. Kevin said that not having the equipment or experience in Cup cars proved to create challenges in 2010 for his ExtenZe Racing Team. For 2011, Kevin wants to build more familiarity with the team and improve dramatically on 2010.
With the majority of a full year under his belt, Conway says that the ExtenZe Racing Team wants to finish consistently in the top 20—25 next year and be able to capitalize on other teams' bad days. He said it is up to the driver and the team to create opportunities for success. Setting realistic goals in addition to learning and developing himself as a driver are at the top of the to-do list for Conway in 2011. Keep an eye out for a formal announcement regarding a 2011 sponsorship agreement between Kevin and Robby Gordon Motorsports following Champions Week in Las Vegas, possibly just before Christmas.
Conway said that although nothing is booked yet, after the awards in Las Vegas he is going to take a look at the calendar and is “planning on planning a trip to the mountains” during the off-season. Either somewhere in Canada or maybe the Rockies for some snowboarding, he said.
As a final question, I asked Kevin if there was anything that NASCAR fans should know about him, his season or his team that he would like to share; his reply speaks volumes.
“We've had a lot of racers over the last couple weeks saying you're the new hero; we're making sure that we are keeping the dream alive for the little guy. This is the first time a non-major team has won Rookie of the Year in 12 years. Regardless of the number of competitors, to be able to run the majority of the races we had to have tenacity, persistence and hard work. Six years ago I was racing weekends in midgets, working for Richard Petty Driving Experience to pay the bills. Six years later, to be in a position to compete for Rookie of the Year ... people sometimes don't understand what it takes to get to this position.”
This is a man who has fought tooth and nail for every inch gained on and off the racetrack. A man who believes in himself, his team and his future. A man who had to overcome adversity more than once during 2010. A man who appreciates each opportunity that has come his way.
To Kevin Conway, the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Rookie of the Year ... Congratulations. You have earned it.
*A special thank you to Kevin for taking the time to speak with me.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
NASCAR Off-Season Week 1: Focus on Reed Sorenson
For week one of the NASCAR off-season, we will be taking a closer look at Reed Sorenson. Being at the track as a toddler while his father raced, it is no wonder Sorenson found a love of racing.
Reed first drove a race car when he was six years old, behind the wheel of a Quarter Midget. He competed in Regional Quarter Midget racing for several years, most successfully in 1997. That amazing season found Reed finishing in the top ten in 42 of his 43 starts, taking home the National Championship, 40 top fives, and 22 wins. Anyone watching back then could have guessed we would someday see Reed in the Cup Series.
*Next week.....Cole Whitt
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| reedsorensononline.com |
Reed first drove a race car when he was six years old, behind the wheel of a Quarter Midget. He competed in Regional Quarter Midget racing for several years, most successfully in 1997. That amazing season found Reed finishing in the top ten in 42 of his 43 starts, taking home the National Championship, 40 top fives, and 22 wins. Anyone watching back then could have guessed we would someday see Reed in the Cup Series.
Sorenson's five years in Legend Cars were just as successful; he won over half the races he started during his rookie season. Reed posts totals including 84 wins and 152 top five finishes in 183 starts. By the time Sorenson graduated from high school in 2004 he had a developmental deal with Chip Ganassi Racing.
The 2004 season found Reed in ARCA and Nationwide racing. Sorenson claimed top five finishes in all three of his 2004 ARCA starts; his first start at Charlotte Motor Speedway found him in the fourth finishing spot and his second ARCA race found him in Victory Lane. In his 2004 Nationwide starts, Reed claimed one top five finish, three top tens, and led several laps in the October race at Atlanta.
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| Hoosier Racing Tire, 2004 |
2005 brought Sorenson to the Busch Series as a full-time driver and eligible for the Rookie of the Year award. He won his first race, ended his freshman season in fourth place, and second in the ROTY competition to Carl Edwards. Reed joined the Cup ranks on a part-time basis in 2006 while also running as a full-time Busch Series driver. With five top ten Cup finishes and 14 top tens in the Busch Series, Reed put together a solid year in which he finished 24th in the Cup standings, 10th in the Busch Series, and fourth in the Cup Series ROTY. 2007 brought Reed his first pole start in the Cup Series, a third place finish at his home track of Atlanta, and a fourth place finish at Charlotte.
2008 brought trouble to the Sorenson camp; his fifth place finish at the season opener in Daytona was the highlight of his year. In a quest for owners points, Reed found himself temporarily replaced by another driver, had a short day because of a wreck at Talladega, and found himself moving to Gillett Everham Motorsports for the 2009 season. As 2009 began it was announced that there would be a merger between Gillett Everham and Richard Petty to form Richard Petty Motorsports. In order to keep the team financially able to operate, Reed raced for free for part of the 2009 season to keep his crew members employed.
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| Getty Images |
Reed finished the 2010 season in the 12th place in season standings in the Nationwide Series, and 39th in the Cup Series. Sorenson ran a limited schedule for Red Bull Racing as a replacement driver for Brian Vickers and in later stages of the season for Braun Racing. Sorenson posted just one top ten finish in his Cup season, but 21 top ten finishes, and nine top fives in the Nationwide Series in 2010. With an 11.6 average Nationwide Series finish, Reed has shown he knows how to handle a car. With the right equipment in a Cup Series ride he could be a title contender within a few years.
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| Autostock |
Reed plans to run a full-time Nationwide schedule with Turner Motorsports in 2011. Sorenson will be driving the #32 Dollar General Chevrolet Impala with engine support from Hendrick Motorsports in Nationwide Series racing. During the few weekends that Sorenson isn't in a race car Reed enjoys fishing, boating, and spending time with family and friends. Sorenson purchased his first home a few years ago on a lake so he can fish, have a boat right outside the back door, and have plenty of space for visitors. This 24 year old has an impressive resume, has been successful at multiple levels of racing, and looks like he will have better equipment in 2011 to work with on the track. Reed Sorenson is definitely one driver that NASCAR fans should keep an eye on in the coming years.
*Next week.....Cole Whitt
Amy McHargue
Thursday, November 18, 2010
NASCAR Ford 400 from Miami-Homestead Preview...Beyond the Numbers
Homestead Miami Speedway brings the 2010 NASCAR season to a close this weekend in southern Florida. This mile-and-a-half oval track has been around since 1995 and cost more than $70 million to construct. The last race of the NASCAR Cup season has been held at Homestead-Miami since 1999. The final race posts eight different winners in 11 races. This final race of the season is a 400 mile race with drivers circling the track 267 times before the Checkers wave. Two of the eleven Cup Series finales have been Green-White-Checker finishes whereas none have been shortened due to weather. Watch for some clouds on Sunday as the forecast is showing a 30% chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tony Stewart won the first two Cup races in Miami in 1999 and 2000. With three other top five finishes at this track, Tony posts a 12.8 average finish. Stewart has never had a DNF at this track; in addition, he has always finished on the lead lap. The #14 Office Depot team will be coming in this weekend looking to not only keep that streak alive but to add to a tally mark to the top five totals. Fighting for each position in the Chase, Tony has a place or two to gain back that have been lost over the last few weeks. Currently in the ninth position in Chase standings Tony Stewart could finish the season, realistically, as high as fifth or as low as 11th depending on Sunday's performance.
Carl Edwards can't do much this weekend to move up in the standings; he is 218 points behind his nearest competitor and 246 points behind Chase leader Denny Hamlin. He does have several drivers behind him in the points who are going to be fighting to take Carl's fourth place position away. With a 6.5 average finish at Homestead it is unlikely that any driver behind Carl in points will be able to take the place from him, however. In his six Cup Series starts at this track Edwards' lowest finish has been 14th place, he has five top ten finishes, and one win from 2008. Carl could prove to be the man that Chase contenders have to catch in order to gain points towards the top of the Chase Leader Board. Carl also has momentum on his side coming into Miami; with two back flips in a Cup and a Nationwide Series race in the past two weeks Edwards has confidence.
Our Chase leader coming into Homestead is Denny Hamlin. With a narrow 15 point lead over second place there is no room for error on Sunday. In five Cup starts in Miami Denny posts three top five finishes but he has never started better than 25th position. Hamlin has proven over and over this season and in past performances at this track that his starting position does not matter to his finishing spot. With Denny's track record here if he can make it to the front without being collected in an accident he may take the win and the Championship. Hamlin's first priority should be to get all the bonus points that he can for leading a lap, the most laps, and for the win.
Kurt Busch has nine starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one win, and three other top five finishes. Historically Kurt has either finished in the top five at this track or outside of the top 20. Due to this one extreme or the other performance at this track, Busch has just a 16.9 average finish here. This is another driver who can claim three of his last five Cup starts in Miami have resulted in top five finishes. Unfortunately, his other two of the last five have been finishes of dead last. If Kurt can stay out of trouble on the track Sunday he could improve his current 10th place standings in the Chase.
Jimmie Johnson is in a place he hasn't been for the last four years; he is not coming into the Chase finale with the points lead. Jimmie is knocking on the door, just 15 points behind the leader. It is going to take a stronger than normal performance from Johnson to claim his fifth Championship title – one-third of Johnson's races here have given up top five finishes. Another third of his Cup starts at Homestead find Jimmie finishing outside of the top 15. His average finish of 16.9 is an accurate representation of an average day at this track for Johnson. With just one finish inside the top five in the past five years in the season finale Johnson might be expected to finish in the top ten but would be a surprise top three finisher. It will take a outstanding performance by each member of the Lowe's #48 Team on Sunday to bring home a win or a fifth consecutive Championship.
Another contender for the Sprint Cup Championship is Kevin Harvick. Coming into Miami in the third place in points, Harvick is 46 points behind leader Denny Hamlin. If Kevin wants to take the top spot away from Hamlin, Harvick will have to lead laps and hope for an error by the #11 Team. With an 8.4 average finish at this track Kevin may be a contender for the win by the end of Sunday's race. Harvick has not won at this track but does claim seven top tens to his credit. Three of Kevin's last four starts on this mile-and-a-half track has given him top five finishes. It will take another top five, and possibly a win for Harvick to take the Championship this year. One scenario in which Harvick takes the Championship is if he wins the race, leads the most laps, and Hamlin finishes seventh or worse.
Ryan Newman has incentive to have a good weekend at Homestead-Miami – a new baby girl. Ryan's wife Krissie gave birth Thursday to Brooklyn Sage Newman. In past seasons new fathers and new husbands tend to often have great performances in the race following the event. Ryan's numbers at Homestead show that he typically qualifies better than he finishes. Newman posts a 9.75 average starting position here but just a 20.6 finishing average. As a non-Chase contender Newman really has nothing to lose and can run on the adrenaline of this week. With no top five finish at Homestead since 2005 Ryan is more than due for a good day in Miami; this should be the weekend he will do it.
Jeff Gordon sits in the sixth position in the Chase and could realistically make his way as high as fourth with a strong finish at Homestead. With a 9.5 average finish here it will be tough to keep Gordon out of the top ten. He claims no wins but nine top ten finishes and five top fives in his 11 Cup starts here. That adds up to an 81% chance that Jeff will find his way into the top ten by the end of the day. A slip by one of the drivers in front of him in the standings could move him up a position or two. It's been a long time since fans have seen a Jeff Gordon win; it's unlikely that one will come this week but he should be running strong with the leaders at the end of the day.
Keep an eye on Clint Bowyer this weekend. With four Cup starts under his belt at Homestead-Miami Speedway Clint has finished inside of the top ten on two occasions, finished 11th once, and had just one finish outside of the top 15. With a 75% chance that Clint will finish Sunday in the top 15 there is a good chance his points standing could improve as well. In the 11th spot after a 21st place finish last week lost him a spot in the Chase Bowyer will be doing whatever he can to gain every point he can. The last track that Clint raced with almost flat straightaways and mid-banked turns was New Hampshire; Bowyer gained a win that weekend.
Greg Biffle moved into the eighth spot in the Chase after a fourth place finish last week in Phoenix. Biffle posted a fifth place finish the week before; steadily moving up through the points could prove to give the confidence that this team needs to move up one or two more spots in the season-ender. With eight starts in Miami Greg has an interesting statistic – he either wins or he finishes outside of the top ten. Three wins in 2004, 2005, and 2006, plus five finishes 13th or lower give Biffle a 13.5 average finish at this track. Watch for Greg to be near the front of the field throughout most of the day on Sunday regardless of where he starts.
My pick for the win on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway is Carl Edwards with Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart rounding out the top three. Also with top ten finishes should be Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, and Greg Biffle. I'm calling for a fuel mileage race at the end of the Ford 400 this weekend with Jimmie Johnson being forced to drop back to conserve fuel, causing him to not reach the top of the Chase points standings. Hamlin will take a close top five finish after leading the most laps on Sunday and come out on top in the Chase to the Championship.
Tune in all weekend for NASCAR season finale coverage spread across several networks. ESPN2 has first practice Friday at 11:30 am and Qualifying on Friday afternoon coming on air at 3 pm. SPEED Channel picks up the second practice on Saturday at 1:30 pm then televisions should switch to ESPN2 for final practice at 3pm. RaceDay coverage starts on SPEED Channel at 9 am and continues on ESPN2 at Noon for NASCAR Countdown. Coverage of the Ford 400 starts at 1 pm on ESPN. Don't miss a minute of final week coverage with have-at-it-boys racing from Homestead-Miami Speedway where every point will be extremely important.
Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com
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| USRacing.com |
Carl Edwards can't do much this weekend to move up in the standings; he is 218 points behind his nearest competitor and 246 points behind Chase leader Denny Hamlin. He does have several drivers behind him in the points who are going to be fighting to take Carl's fourth place position away. With a 6.5 average finish at Homestead it is unlikely that any driver behind Carl in points will be able to take the place from him, however. In his six Cup Series starts at this track Edwards' lowest finish has been 14th place, he has five top ten finishes, and one win from 2008. Carl could prove to be the man that Chase contenders have to catch in order to gain points towards the top of the Chase Leader Board. Carl also has momentum on his side coming into Miami; with two back flips in a Cup and a Nationwide Series race in the past two weeks Edwards has confidence.
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| AP Photo |
Kurt Busch has nine starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one win, and three other top five finishes. Historically Kurt has either finished in the top five at this track or outside of the top 20. Due to this one extreme or the other performance at this track, Busch has just a 16.9 average finish here. This is another driver who can claim three of his last five Cup starts in Miami have resulted in top five finishes. Unfortunately, his other two of the last five have been finishes of dead last. If Kurt can stay out of trouble on the track Sunday he could improve his current 10th place standings in the Chase.
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| Getty Images |
Another contender for the Sprint Cup Championship is Kevin Harvick. Coming into Miami in the third place in points, Harvick is 46 points behind leader Denny Hamlin. If Kevin wants to take the top spot away from Hamlin, Harvick will have to lead laps and hope for an error by the #11 Team. With an 8.4 average finish at this track Kevin may be a contender for the win by the end of Sunday's race. Harvick has not won at this track but does claim seven top tens to his credit. Three of Kevin's last four starts on this mile-and-a-half track has given him top five finishes. It will take another top five, and possibly a win for Harvick to take the Championship this year. One scenario in which Harvick takes the Championship is if he wins the race, leads the most laps, and Hamlin finishes seventh or worse.
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| Athletic News/U.S. Army |
Ryan Newman has incentive to have a good weekend at Homestead-Miami – a new baby girl. Ryan's wife Krissie gave birth Thursday to Brooklyn Sage Newman. In past seasons new fathers and new husbands tend to often have great performances in the race following the event. Ryan's numbers at Homestead show that he typically qualifies better than he finishes. Newman posts a 9.75 average starting position here but just a 20.6 finishing average. As a non-Chase contender Newman really has nothing to lose and can run on the adrenaline of this week. With no top five finish at Homestead since 2005 Ryan is more than due for a good day in Miami; this should be the weekend he will do it.
Jeff Gordon sits in the sixth position in the Chase and could realistically make his way as high as fourth with a strong finish at Homestead. With a 9.5 average finish here it will be tough to keep Gordon out of the top ten. He claims no wins but nine top ten finishes and five top fives in his 11 Cup starts here. That adds up to an 81% chance that Jeff will find his way into the top ten by the end of the day. A slip by one of the drivers in front of him in the standings could move him up a position or two. It's been a long time since fans have seen a Jeff Gordon win; it's unlikely that one will come this week but he should be running strong with the leaders at the end of the day.
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| AP Photo |
Greg Biffle moved into the eighth spot in the Chase after a fourth place finish last week in Phoenix. Biffle posted a fifth place finish the week before; steadily moving up through the points could prove to give the confidence that this team needs to move up one or two more spots in the season-ender. With eight starts in Miami Greg has an interesting statistic – he either wins or he finishes outside of the top ten. Three wins in 2004, 2005, and 2006, plus five finishes 13th or lower give Biffle a 13.5 average finish at this track. Watch for Greg to be near the front of the field throughout most of the day on Sunday regardless of where he starts.
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| AP Photo |
Tune in all weekend for NASCAR season finale coverage spread across several networks. ESPN2 has first practice Friday at 11:30 am and Qualifying on Friday afternoon coming on air at 3 pm. SPEED Channel picks up the second practice on Saturday at 1:30 pm then televisions should switch to ESPN2 for final practice at 3pm. RaceDay coverage starts on SPEED Channel at 9 am and continues on ESPN2 at Noon for NASCAR Countdown. Coverage of the Ford 400 starts at 1 pm on ESPN. Don't miss a minute of final week coverage with have-at-it-boys racing from Homestead-Miami Speedway where every point will be extremely important.
Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com
Friday, November 12, 2010
NASCAR Kobalt Tools 500 from Phoenix Preview: Beyond the Numbers
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| Autostock |
This season is winding down fast as NASCAR teams head to Phoenix this weekend. Placed about 15 miles west of the Phoenix Metro area, Phoenix International Raceway is a one mile track that the drivers will make 312 trips around on the quest for Victory Lane in Sunday afternoon's Kobalt Tools 500. Ford has taken the most wins at PIR, with half of the 22 fall Cup Series races offering up a trip to the Winner's Circle to Ford drivers but the last seven trophies have went home with Chevy teams. Just one fall race at Phoenix has been called early due to rain, and two have been extended for green-white-checker finishes.
Kevin Harvick is lurking in third place in Cup standings behind the leader by 59 points. Watch for Kevin to be driving it like he stole it at Phoenix on Sunday. Harvick has won at PIR twice before, and claims a total of six top ten finishes in his 15 previous starts at this track. With a 15th place average finish, Kevin might appear to not be a shoe-in for the top ten this week, but with seven of his last nine Cup starts in Arizona resulting in top tens I think we should watch for Harvick to be near the front as laps wind down on Sunday afternoon.
Holding the leader spot in the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship with a 33 point lead is Denny Hamlin. The #11 FedEx driver has never won at Phoenix International Raceway but successfully has found a top ten finish in 60% of his Cup starts here. Half of Denny's Phoenix races have found him in the top five at the end of the day. He isn't going to give up the points lead easily; if someone else makes his way to the top spot after this weekend that driver will have to fight to take it from Hamlin.
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| The Birmingham News / Doug Demmons |
Kyle Busch posts top ten finishes in seven of his 11 starts here at PIR. The only win he has at this track is also his only top five finish; from the first year he raced here in the Cup Series, 2005. This Busch brother has lost three Chase spots in the past two races and is now in the seventh position in points. On one hand, Kyle is only 22 points out of the fourth position in the Chase standings. On the other hand, he is also just 33 points away from sliding back another two spots. Kyle Busch will have to stay with the front of the pack to salvage a upward swing in his 2010 Chase standings.
The only driver in the field this week to have started all 27 Cup Series races at PIR is Mark Martin. Mark posts 18 top ten finishes and 12 top five finishes over the years in Phoenix; with a 8.7 average finish here Martin may be the guy to beat this weekend. He certainly has experience on his side – Mark has completed 8,283 laps around Phoenix International Raceway. Recent appearances here have given Martin good results with four of his last five starts showing top five finishes. Mark's last two starts at PIR have resulted in fourth place finishes; the spring race of 2009 found Martin in the Winner's Circle. The #5 might find its way back to Victory lane this weekend for Hendrick Motorsports.
Tony Stewart has a good chance to make up some lost ground in the Chase this weekend. With an 11.7 average finish the odds say the Tony will find his way to the top ten this Sunday; he's done it in nearly 53% of his starts at PIR. Stewart lost another spot in Chase points standings after last week's 31st place finish. Just four races ago Tony was in fourth position in points; now he is in eighth. Making up points should be the primary focus of the #14 team this weekend. Realistically, Stewart could move up as high as fourth place after this weekend with a strong finish.
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| Getty Images |
Another driver to keep an eye on this weekend should be Jeff Gordon. With the buzz from last week's altercation between Gordon and Jeff Burton still existing the #24 Team will come into this weekend with a lot of attention coming their way. Without a win in 2010 Gordon comes to PIR with 74% of his previous starts here giving him a top ten finish. Jeff finished in the runner-up position in the early-season race this year; another finish like that and he could gain back the two Chase standing positions he lost last week after finishing 37th in Texas. A win in 2007, nine top five finishes over the last 17 years, and a 10.4 average finish at PIR says that Gordon should be considered a contender for this week's race.
David Reutimann has a better average finish on Intermediate tracks than any other track type. With just six Cup Series starts at PIR Reutimann has two top ten finishes to his credit. He has posted three top ten finishes in the last four races of this season, however. With confidence on his side from his recent Cup performances and most of his better performances coming at Intermediate tracks, David may have what he needs to fight his way to the front of the field on Sunday. Watch for the #00 Michael Waltrip Racing driver to continue making headlines this week in Arizona.
Clint Bowyer comes to Arizona in the tenth place in the Chase after moving up two positions with a seventh place finish last week at Texas. Three of Clint's last five Cup starts at PIR have resulted in top ten finishes and his best finish of second place came in the 2008 April race. Clint has been in ten prior Cup races at Phoenix and posts a 14.9 average finish. A top five finish would considerably help Bowyer's Chase goal of finishing the season in the top five in points. Just 72 points separate the #33 Richard Childress Racing driver from the fifth spot in the Chase.
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Dale Earnhardt, Jr. posts seven top ten finishes out of his 17 Cup starts at Phoenix International Raceway. Dale has found Victory Lane twice, has two more top five finishes, and a 18.8 average finishing spot here. After a less than stellar season, Earnhardt is likely to do well in Arizona this weekend. Only two of his last five starts have been top finishes; the odds say this time around, Dale should find the top ten by the end of the day. Earnhardt finished in the 12th position here in April of this year; driving the fan-designed “Paint the 88” Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet on Sunday, watch for an improvement in Dale's finishing position.
Carl Edwards comes to Phoenix with an upward trend; over the past four races, he has improved from seventh to fourth place in the Chase standings. 317 points out of the top spot in points, Edwards is racing to hang on to fourth – there are six drivers out there who would love to take it from Carl. Eight top ten finishes out of his 12 Cup Series starts at Phoenix have resulted in Edwards having a 12.8 average finish at this track. Carl's best finish at PIR has been fourth place. He has finished fourth three times here, twice in 2008 and in the 2006 spring race. Watch for Edwards to qualify and race well; the #99 Aflac Ford will be looking to repeat the strong performance they had here in April.
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My winner pick for this weekend's Kobalt Tools 500 at PIR is Kevin Harvick, with Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards taking second and third. Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, David Reutimann, Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., and Mark Martin will complete the top ten. Suspiciously missing from my top ten picks is Jimmie Johnson; after the near meltdown of Chad Knaus last week and the swap of pit crews with the #24 team I am just not feeling like the Lowe's Team is going to be pulling it together this week. In fact, I'm going to predict a rare DNF for Johnson this weekend caused by an on-track tangle with a non-Chase driver. Also will call for Clint Bowyer to move up to the number six spot in Cup point standings by the end of Sunday's race.
Coverage of the Kobalt Tools 500 from Phoenix International Raceway began today with one practice session and qualifying. Carl Edwards posted the top speed in the first practice and took the pole in qualifying, breaking the former track qualifying record by more than half a second. The second practice comes on the air on SPEED at 1:30 pm on Saturday. Final practice will air at 3 pm Saturday afternoon, on a ten minute delay, on ESPN2. RaceDay coverage on SPEED begins Sunday at Noon and runs until 2 pm when coverage is picked up by ESPN2 for NASCAR Countdown. Switch to ESPN for race coverage beginning at 3 pm. It's going to be a full weekend of NASCAR coverage – don't miss a second of this next-to-last weekend of the Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
TOP TEN REASONS TO VOTE FOR AMY AS MOST PASSIONATE FAN
http://bit.ly/9ddRfp Vote Video #1 for AMY
10. It takes 1 minute to register and 10 seconds to vote daily...or less. Why wouldn't you help?
9. The Hamburger Helper site asks immediately after you register about email – they will NOT spam you.
8. If she wins, Amy promises to post lots of up-close and personal pictures of all your favorite NASCAR drivers (or their wives, girlfriends, etc. whatever is requested) all dressed up at the Most Popular Driver Awards.
7. Heels and a dress at the MPD Awards luncheon...
6. Amy has never been west of Missouri before. This Hoosier chick would LOVE to go to Las Vegas!
5. Amy has the best video in the contest anyway!
4. Once the contest is over Monday night at 11:59pm she will stop bugging you to vote.
3. Amy is extremely competitive and hates to lose. The last contest she was a part of she finished second, please don't let that happen again.
2. Karma ~ Last week Amy donated a dozen Nike footballs to her local Boys Club. The week before eight footballs were taken to her nephew's school as a donation. She won a contest that gave her 20 Nike footballs. Instead of selling them she donated to places that needed them.
What are you waiting for?? Ten good reasons say it's time to go to http://bit.ly/9ddRfp and Vote Video #1 for AMY!!!
Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com
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