The 2011 NASCAR Points system has been announced. Brian France totes the new system as a way to increase competition and make the Points structure easier to understand. Is it easier to understand? Definitely.
Even the most casual fan can understand this after a short explanation. Diehard fans see immediately that it is a very straightforward points structure with no similarities to the old system when the top third was separated by five points, middle third by four points, and lower third by three points per finishing spot. You could figure the old points system in your head but it took a minute or two.
This year you check where your driver finished, subtract that number from 43 (the total number of drivers in the race), add 1 and you know how many points your driver receives. Your favorite driver finished 2nd? 43 - 2 + 1 = 42 points. He finished 32nd? 43 - 32 + 1 = 12 points. 41st place finisher? 43 - 41 + 1 = 3 points.
New Cup Points system:
Points awarded for finishing spot are from 1 to 43 points.
The Winner gets 43 points, last place gets 1 point. Everything in between fills in accordingly (2nd gets 42 points, 3rd gets 41, etc...).
Leading a lap gets you 1 bonus point.
Leading the most laps gets you 1 bonus point.
Winner of the race gets 3 bonus points.
The winner of the race will always either get 47 or 48 points. 43 points for winning + 3 bonus points for winning the race + 1 bonus point for leading a lap = 47 points. If that driver also leads the most laps then the driver receives 1 additional bonus point.
So, how does this compare to the old points system in regard to Brian France's claim of "raising the competition level?" Check this out:
Old Points: Race Winner received 544% more points than last place.
New Points: Winner receives 4700% more points than last place.
(Above stat is based on assumption of the winner receives 47 points scenario and last place does not lead a lap)
Old Points: Winner bonus was 2.7% of winners points.
New Points: Winner bonus is 6.9% of winners points.
Old Points: 2nd place received 91.9% of 1st place points.
New Points: 2nd place receives 91.4% of 1st place points.
(Above stat is based on assumption of the winner receives 47 points scenario and 2nd place leads at least 1 lap)
Old Points: Bonus points for leading a lap or most laps 2.7% of winner points.
New Points: Bonus point for leading a lap or the most laps is 2.1% of winner points, as based on 47 point scenario.
So, although the new points system awards a lesser percentage of bonus points for leading a lap or leading the most laps the new points system does significantly award a higher percentage of points for finishing higher in the field and for winning the race.
At the end of the first 26 races we will still enter Chase mode. The difference is that the top ten in points get a guaranteed spot the Chase. The other two spots are "Wildcard" positions. The 11th and 12th places in the Chase will be determined by the number of wins on the season. Both 11th and 12th place drivers must be in the top 20 in overall standings to be eligible.
Example: If your driver wins three races in the beginning of the season but has four DNFs that cause him to drop out of the top ten in points, he still makes the Chase if he has the most or second most wins of any driver in positions 11 through 20 in the standings.
In my opinion, this will definitely create more competitive racing. A guy can be sitting in 19th position in points after the 25th race because of getting caught up in wrecks, mechanical difficulties, or penalties but if that driver has won more races than the other guys in the 11th through 20th positions he is still in the Chase. Going into that 26th race if one driver in the 11th through 20th positions has won two races and three other guys have won one race each, that is going to make for some hot racing during that last race before the Chase.
Will this increase fan passion for NASCAR? Will it cause more competitive racing? A tighter race to the Chase? We are all going to have to stick around through at least this season and find out. In reality, it may be four or five years before it can be seen whether this change was good, bad, or had no change of viewership, fan passion, and attendance but I do not see this change as a bad thing at all.
Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com
Showing posts with label CHASE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CHASE. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Thursday, November 18, 2010
NASCAR Ford 400 from Miami-Homestead Preview...Beyond the Numbers
Homestead Miami Speedway brings the 2010 NASCAR season to a close this weekend in southern Florida. This mile-and-a-half oval track has been around since 1995 and cost more than $70 million to construct. The last race of the NASCAR Cup season has been held at Homestead-Miami since 1999. The final race posts eight different winners in 11 races. This final race of the season is a 400 mile race with drivers circling the track 267 times before the Checkers wave. Two of the eleven Cup Series finales have been Green-White-Checker finishes whereas none have been shortened due to weather. Watch for some clouds on Sunday as the forecast is showing a 30% chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tony Stewart won the first two Cup races in Miami in 1999 and 2000. With three other top five finishes at this track, Tony posts a 12.8 average finish. Stewart has never had a DNF at this track; in addition, he has always finished on the lead lap. The #14 Office Depot team will be coming in this weekend looking to not only keep that streak alive but to add to a tally mark to the top five totals. Fighting for each position in the Chase, Tony has a place or two to gain back that have been lost over the last few weeks. Currently in the ninth position in Chase standings Tony Stewart could finish the season, realistically, as high as fifth or as low as 11th depending on Sunday's performance.
Carl Edwards can't do much this weekend to move up in the standings; he is 218 points behind his nearest competitor and 246 points behind Chase leader Denny Hamlin. He does have several drivers behind him in the points who are going to be fighting to take Carl's fourth place position away. With a 6.5 average finish at Homestead it is unlikely that any driver behind Carl in points will be able to take the place from him, however. In his six Cup Series starts at this track Edwards' lowest finish has been 14th place, he has five top ten finishes, and one win from 2008. Carl could prove to be the man that Chase contenders have to catch in order to gain points towards the top of the Chase Leader Board. Carl also has momentum on his side coming into Miami; with two back flips in a Cup and a Nationwide Series race in the past two weeks Edwards has confidence.
Our Chase leader coming into Homestead is Denny Hamlin. With a narrow 15 point lead over second place there is no room for error on Sunday. In five Cup starts in Miami Denny posts three top five finishes but he has never started better than 25th position. Hamlin has proven over and over this season and in past performances at this track that his starting position does not matter to his finishing spot. With Denny's track record here if he can make it to the front without being collected in an accident he may take the win and the Championship. Hamlin's first priority should be to get all the bonus points that he can for leading a lap, the most laps, and for the win.
Kurt Busch has nine starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one win, and three other top five finishes. Historically Kurt has either finished in the top five at this track or outside of the top 20. Due to this one extreme or the other performance at this track, Busch has just a 16.9 average finish here. This is another driver who can claim three of his last five Cup starts in Miami have resulted in top five finishes. Unfortunately, his other two of the last five have been finishes of dead last. If Kurt can stay out of trouble on the track Sunday he could improve his current 10th place standings in the Chase.
Jimmie Johnson is in a place he hasn't been for the last four years; he is not coming into the Chase finale with the points lead. Jimmie is knocking on the door, just 15 points behind the leader. It is going to take a stronger than normal performance from Johnson to claim his fifth Championship title – one-third of Johnson's races here have given up top five finishes. Another third of his Cup starts at Homestead find Jimmie finishing outside of the top 15. His average finish of 16.9 is an accurate representation of an average day at this track for Johnson. With just one finish inside the top five in the past five years in the season finale Johnson might be expected to finish in the top ten but would be a surprise top three finisher. It will take a outstanding performance by each member of the Lowe's #48 Team on Sunday to bring home a win or a fifth consecutive Championship.
Another contender for the Sprint Cup Championship is Kevin Harvick. Coming into Miami in the third place in points, Harvick is 46 points behind leader Denny Hamlin. If Kevin wants to take the top spot away from Hamlin, Harvick will have to lead laps and hope for an error by the #11 Team. With an 8.4 average finish at this track Kevin may be a contender for the win by the end of Sunday's race. Harvick has not won at this track but does claim seven top tens to his credit. Three of Kevin's last four starts on this mile-and-a-half track has given him top five finishes. It will take another top five, and possibly a win for Harvick to take the Championship this year. One scenario in which Harvick takes the Championship is if he wins the race, leads the most laps, and Hamlin finishes seventh or worse.
Ryan Newman has incentive to have a good weekend at Homestead-Miami – a new baby girl. Ryan's wife Krissie gave birth Thursday to Brooklyn Sage Newman. In past seasons new fathers and new husbands tend to often have great performances in the race following the event. Ryan's numbers at Homestead show that he typically qualifies better than he finishes. Newman posts a 9.75 average starting position here but just a 20.6 finishing average. As a non-Chase contender Newman really has nothing to lose and can run on the adrenaline of this week. With no top five finish at Homestead since 2005 Ryan is more than due for a good day in Miami; this should be the weekend he will do it.
Jeff Gordon sits in the sixth position in the Chase and could realistically make his way as high as fourth with a strong finish at Homestead. With a 9.5 average finish here it will be tough to keep Gordon out of the top ten. He claims no wins but nine top ten finishes and five top fives in his 11 Cup starts here. That adds up to an 81% chance that Jeff will find his way into the top ten by the end of the day. A slip by one of the drivers in front of him in the standings could move him up a position or two. It's been a long time since fans have seen a Jeff Gordon win; it's unlikely that one will come this week but he should be running strong with the leaders at the end of the day.
Keep an eye on Clint Bowyer this weekend. With four Cup starts under his belt at Homestead-Miami Speedway Clint has finished inside of the top ten on two occasions, finished 11th once, and had just one finish outside of the top 15. With a 75% chance that Clint will finish Sunday in the top 15 there is a good chance his points standing could improve as well. In the 11th spot after a 21st place finish last week lost him a spot in the Chase Bowyer will be doing whatever he can to gain every point he can. The last track that Clint raced with almost flat straightaways and mid-banked turns was New Hampshire; Bowyer gained a win that weekend.
Greg Biffle moved into the eighth spot in the Chase after a fourth place finish last week in Phoenix. Biffle posted a fifth place finish the week before; steadily moving up through the points could prove to give the confidence that this team needs to move up one or two more spots in the season-ender. With eight starts in Miami Greg has an interesting statistic – he either wins or he finishes outside of the top ten. Three wins in 2004, 2005, and 2006, plus five finishes 13th or lower give Biffle a 13.5 average finish at this track. Watch for Greg to be near the front of the field throughout most of the day on Sunday regardless of where he starts.
My pick for the win on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway is Carl Edwards with Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart rounding out the top three. Also with top ten finishes should be Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, and Greg Biffle. I'm calling for a fuel mileage race at the end of the Ford 400 this weekend with Jimmie Johnson being forced to drop back to conserve fuel, causing him to not reach the top of the Chase points standings. Hamlin will take a close top five finish after leading the most laps on Sunday and come out on top in the Chase to the Championship.
Tune in all weekend for NASCAR season finale coverage spread across several networks. ESPN2 has first practice Friday at 11:30 am and Qualifying on Friday afternoon coming on air at 3 pm. SPEED Channel picks up the second practice on Saturday at 1:30 pm then televisions should switch to ESPN2 for final practice at 3pm. RaceDay coverage starts on SPEED Channel at 9 am and continues on ESPN2 at Noon for NASCAR Countdown. Coverage of the Ford 400 starts at 1 pm on ESPN. Don't miss a minute of final week coverage with have-at-it-boys racing from Homestead-Miami Speedway where every point will be extremely important.
Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com
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| USRacing.com |
Carl Edwards can't do much this weekend to move up in the standings; he is 218 points behind his nearest competitor and 246 points behind Chase leader Denny Hamlin. He does have several drivers behind him in the points who are going to be fighting to take Carl's fourth place position away. With a 6.5 average finish at Homestead it is unlikely that any driver behind Carl in points will be able to take the place from him, however. In his six Cup Series starts at this track Edwards' lowest finish has been 14th place, he has five top ten finishes, and one win from 2008. Carl could prove to be the man that Chase contenders have to catch in order to gain points towards the top of the Chase Leader Board. Carl also has momentum on his side coming into Miami; with two back flips in a Cup and a Nationwide Series race in the past two weeks Edwards has confidence.
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| AP Photo |
Kurt Busch has nine starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, one win, and three other top five finishes. Historically Kurt has either finished in the top five at this track or outside of the top 20. Due to this one extreme or the other performance at this track, Busch has just a 16.9 average finish here. This is another driver who can claim three of his last five Cup starts in Miami have resulted in top five finishes. Unfortunately, his other two of the last five have been finishes of dead last. If Kurt can stay out of trouble on the track Sunday he could improve his current 10th place standings in the Chase.
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| Getty Images |
Another contender for the Sprint Cup Championship is Kevin Harvick. Coming into Miami in the third place in points, Harvick is 46 points behind leader Denny Hamlin. If Kevin wants to take the top spot away from Hamlin, Harvick will have to lead laps and hope for an error by the #11 Team. With an 8.4 average finish at this track Kevin may be a contender for the win by the end of Sunday's race. Harvick has not won at this track but does claim seven top tens to his credit. Three of Kevin's last four starts on this mile-and-a-half track has given him top five finishes. It will take another top five, and possibly a win for Harvick to take the Championship this year. One scenario in which Harvick takes the Championship is if he wins the race, leads the most laps, and Hamlin finishes seventh or worse.
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| Athletic News/U.S. Army |
Ryan Newman has incentive to have a good weekend at Homestead-Miami – a new baby girl. Ryan's wife Krissie gave birth Thursday to Brooklyn Sage Newman. In past seasons new fathers and new husbands tend to often have great performances in the race following the event. Ryan's numbers at Homestead show that he typically qualifies better than he finishes. Newman posts a 9.75 average starting position here but just a 20.6 finishing average. As a non-Chase contender Newman really has nothing to lose and can run on the adrenaline of this week. With no top five finish at Homestead since 2005 Ryan is more than due for a good day in Miami; this should be the weekend he will do it.
Jeff Gordon sits in the sixth position in the Chase and could realistically make his way as high as fourth with a strong finish at Homestead. With a 9.5 average finish here it will be tough to keep Gordon out of the top ten. He claims no wins but nine top ten finishes and five top fives in his 11 Cup starts here. That adds up to an 81% chance that Jeff will find his way into the top ten by the end of the day. A slip by one of the drivers in front of him in the standings could move him up a position or two. It's been a long time since fans have seen a Jeff Gordon win; it's unlikely that one will come this week but he should be running strong with the leaders at the end of the day.
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| AP Photo |
Greg Biffle moved into the eighth spot in the Chase after a fourth place finish last week in Phoenix. Biffle posted a fifth place finish the week before; steadily moving up through the points could prove to give the confidence that this team needs to move up one or two more spots in the season-ender. With eight starts in Miami Greg has an interesting statistic – he either wins or he finishes outside of the top ten. Three wins in 2004, 2005, and 2006, plus five finishes 13th or lower give Biffle a 13.5 average finish at this track. Watch for Greg to be near the front of the field throughout most of the day on Sunday regardless of where he starts.
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| AP Photo |
Tune in all weekend for NASCAR season finale coverage spread across several networks. ESPN2 has first practice Friday at 11:30 am and Qualifying on Friday afternoon coming on air at 3 pm. SPEED Channel picks up the second practice on Saturday at 1:30 pm then televisions should switch to ESPN2 for final practice at 3pm. RaceDay coverage starts on SPEED Channel at 9 am and continues on ESPN2 at Noon for NASCAR Countdown. Coverage of the Ford 400 starts at 1 pm on ESPN. Don't miss a minute of final week coverage with have-at-it-boys racing from Homestead-Miami Speedway where every point will be extremely important.
Amy McHargue
http://ellipticalcurrents.blogspot.com
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